The future of the war in Ukraine, the nature and pace of Kiev’s support were the focus of Wednesday’s second day of the World Economic Forum. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned urgently in Davos: “It is very dangerous to underestimate Russia. They have mobilized 200,000 more soldiers. [Vladímir] Putin has shown his willingness to sacrifice thousands upon thousands of his soldiers. They are now acquiring more and more arms from other authoritarian regimes, including Iran, and planning new offensives. So there is an urgent need. More support is needed, more advanced support, heavy weapons, modern weapons,” he said.
The leader of the Atlantic Alliance expressed his point of view shortly after the President of Ukraine Volodimir Zelenskiy spoke live via video to the participants of the conference at the Swiss Alpine station. The leader of the country attacked by Russia stressed the urgent need to act “quickly and decisively.” “When Russia occupied Crimea in 2014, the world reeled; in 2022 when he also launched the full-scale invasion. You don’t have to hesitate anymore. The delivery of missile defense systems to Ukraine must be faster than the next Russian attacks. The delivery of Western tanks must be faster than a new Russian tank offensive,” Zelenskyy demanded.
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The supply of Western tanks, particularly the German Leopard 2 model, is currently the real epicenter of the debate in a war in which the land component is essential and in which, with the spring thaw and a possible restructuring of the Russian armed forces , which could fight be very violent. Great Britain has already announced its decision to supply modern Western tanks “Challenger 2”, and Poland has also declared its readiness to do so “specifically a total of 14 Leopard 2”, which require the approval of Berlin, for whose government they are now all Eyes on About twenty countries have this highly efficient model that would facilitate a concerted effort. So far, Ukraine has been running on the Soviet model.
Foreign Minister Olaf Scholz, who also spoke at the Davos Forum on Wednesday, avoided specifying the German position. He confirmed his country’s strong contribution to Ukraine, not only financially, but also in the supply of military materiel, recalling the decisions to supply advanced anti-aircraft systems such as Patriots and other models or infantry fighting vehicles. And he assured that military support “will continue as long as it lasts”.
The resignation of Germany’s defense minister earlier this week has complicated the decision-making process. The successor, Boris Pistorius, has just taken up his duties. A meeting of the broad group of countries supporting Ukraine is scheduled for this Friday. A German source with prominent access to security and diplomacy, consulted in Davos, thought the go-ahead for the tanks to be deployed was the most likely outcome.
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Stoltenberg wanted to point out that “no one knows how this war will end, but it will most likely happen through negotiations. And if you want a negotiated peace, you have to provide military support. Guns are the way to peace. The only way to bring Putin to the table is to convince him that he will not win on the battlefield.”
In a recent article in The Washington Post, former US Defense and Secretary of State Robert Gates and Condoleezza Rice pointed out that the Russian leader’s strategy rests precisely on the belief that Moscow will outlast the West in this war of attrition
But economic dynamics that have moved away from the most catastrophic scenarios are playing hard against Russia. Different viewpoints are perceived in Davos, some more optimistic – IMF Deputy Director Gita Gopinath announced that her organization will revise its economic forecasts upwards – and others less so. However, the leading indicators are a far cry from the very bleak picture that was almost the general consensus until recently. The good fortune of a mild autumn and winter made a decisive contribution to containing the energy crisis; the inflation-related loss of purchasing power is already clearly noticeable and will cause unrest. So there is no reason for complacency, but the specter of an economic catastrophe that would undermine public support for the fight against Putin has faded, which is bad news for the Kremlin.
At the military level, the trend appears to be clearly towards increased supplies due to the exceptional adaptability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces when deploying new weapons. During a visit to Washington this Wednesday, the Netherlands, through its Prime Minister Mark Rutte, also announced its willingness to deliver a battery of Patriot missiles to Kyiv.
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