The American League Central has had three different winners in the last three years. The twins finished first in both 2019 and the abridged 2020 season but have been hampered significantly by injuries in the last two campaigns since then. A resurgent White Sox club took over in 2021 and made the playoffs for the second straight season for the first time in franchise history. Many thought these two clubs would face off in 2022, but a young Guardians team provided a surprise surprise as both the Twins and Sox were struck by ill health. During this period, both the Royals and Tigers struggled to get out of the conversions.
With just over three weeks to go until the pitchers and catchers report, how much has the picture changed this offseason? There are still a few unsigned free agents and some trades could always change the picture, but let’s take a look at where things stand now.
Cleveland Guardians – 2022 record: 92-70, predicted 2023 fWAR: 45.1
The Guardians were baseball’s youngest team last year and expectations were pretty modest at this point a year ago. However, they sneaked up on everyone and took the crown. Many will debate whether it was sustained or a fluke, but they went into the off-season in a good position to repeat it. With much of the roster being young and manageable, they were their most notable free agents Austin Hedges and Bryan Shaw. That means the vast majority of the club, who won 92 games last year, will be back, with many more exciting prospects potentially to join as the year progresses.
Having lost so few players at the end of last year it has been a fairly quiet winter for the club so far. However, they made two notable additions by signing Josh Bell and Mike Zunino. These two should help strengthen the roster and there will be reinforcements from within as well. perspectives Brayan Rocchio, George Valera and Logan Allen all reached Triple-A’s last year and could make their MLB debuts this year Tanner Bibee, Daniel Espino and others not far behind.
Chicago White Sox – 2022 record: 81-81, predicted 2023 fWAR: 40.6
The Sox won 93 games in 2021 and were picked by many for a repeat in 2022. Unfortunately, many of their regulars spent significant time on the injured list, or disappointed, or both. The rotation achieved tremendous results Dylan stops and Johnny Cueto But the rest of the rotation dealt with various ailments and slumped when on the mound. Manager Tony La Russa also later dealt with health issues and decided not to return to the dugout in 2023, leading to the hiring of Pedro Grifol.
They lost Cueto in free agency, along with their longtime fan favorite Jose Abreu. One hopes so Andrew Vaughn can come from the outfield and take over for Abreu initially, which should at least help the team by pulling off their terrible defense on the pitch. Andreas Benintendi was signed to fill one of the outfield spots during Vaughn’s absence Mike Clevinger was signed to replace Cueto in the rotation. It’s a pretty similar squad to the one that won 93 games two years ago and 81 games last year. Better health might be enough to get them back in 2021 shape, but they’ve already lost touch indefinitely Liam Hendricks Start of treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.
Minnesota Twins – 2022 record: 78-84, predicted 2023 fWAR: 42.0
After back-to-back division titles in 2019 and 2020, it was two disappointing campaigns in Minnesota. A mountain of injuries kept her below .500 in each of the last two campaigns. They also faced the loss of a superstar this winter Carlo Correa canceled his contract and seemed unlikely to return. He then made one of the most surprising free-hand trips in recent memory, agreeing to a 13-year deal with the Giants that was later scuttled when the club grew concerned about the long-term health of his right leg. Correa then agreed to a 12-year contract with the Mets, although that agreement was also kiboshed by the medics. That culminated in Correa returning to Minnesota with a six-year, four-option warrant.
Getting Correa back is a nice coup for the twins, but it still means they’re effectively back where they started. Christian Vazquez was signed to replace the departure Gary Sanchez and they also wagered on a gamble Joey Gallo Upswing but the squad currently looks pretty much the same as the one that disappointed last year. Better health alone could get them straight back into racing, and they hired a new head athletic trainer to try and help in that department. However, it wouldn’t be surprising if injuries were an issue again as many of their key players seem prone to IL trips.
Detroit Tigers – 2022 record: 66-96, predicted 2023 fWAR: 30.0
The Tigers were a popular sleeper choice for a post-season berth this time last year. They had many exciting prospects on the cusp of their debuts, including Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson. They decided the time was right to strike with a signature Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, as well as upgrades via trade. Unfortunately, almost everyone in the roster has had a disappointing season, especially up front. The team hit just .231/.286/.346 for an 81 wRC+, which was last in the majors. Their collective 110 home runs were also the last and 17 behind the next team.
It seems like 2023 will be about figuring out how to proceed. The club fired general manager Al Avila and brought in Scott Harris as president of baseball operations. They’ve traded in a few helpers since then Joe Jimenez and Gregory Soto while also signing a few starters to one-year contracts Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenz. It appears that the all-in approach will be put on hold until they figure out what parts of their list to build around.
Kansas City Royals – 2022 record: 65-97, predicted 2023 fWAR: 7/30
The Royals have finished under .500 in each of the last six seasons. Their attempt to rebuild was unsuccessful, leading to major upheaval this winter. Both manager Mike Matheny and baseball operations president Dayton Moore were fired, with Matt Quatraro now taking the skipper’s chair and JJ Picollo as baseball’s chief operating officer. Roster changes have been fairly modest so far this winter Zack Greinke the most notable departure despite still being a free agent. Additions include Jordan Lyles, Ryan Yarbrough and Aroldis Chapman.
The club have some exciting young players Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and MJ Melendezbut many of their top draft choices have gone to pitchers that have so far disappointed. Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, Jackson Kowar, Alec March, Jonathan Bowlan and Asa Lacy were all included in the first or second round of drafting and haven’t delivered much that’s exciting yet. However, Brady Singer 2022 showed that the narrative can be reversed. Developing young players into viable big leagues is key for a club that doesn’t throw mountains of money at liberty. The recent lack of success in this regard has hurt them and they need to do better somehow.
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While the Tigers and Royals are likely to use this year to rate younger players, the other three clubs all have a plausible path to winning the division. The Guardians are reigning champions and added Bell to give them an extra boost. The Sox have stars like Tim Anderson, Louis Robert and Dylan stops but simply need everyone to stay healthy. It’s a similar story for the Twins who have elite players like Correa and Byron Buxton but must keep them and others off the injured list. The three clubs are separated by just 4.5 projected WAR according to FanGraphs, pointing to an exciting fight in the upcoming campaign.
What do you think? Can the Guardians repeat or will one of their competitors surpass them? Give your opinion in the poll below.
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