Since late September, there has been a particularly high frequency of missile tests in North Korea. In recent days, these have increased. On Wednesday alone, more than 20 rockets were launched from the east and west coasts – more than ever before in one day. The maritime border between North and South Korea was also crossed. South Korea responded by launching its own missiles into the open sea north of the border line.
According to Japanese media, at least six rockets were fired on Thursday. One of them may have been a nuclear-capable ICBM with a range of several thousand kilometers. However, according to the South Korean military, this ICBM “probably failed”. It landed in the Pacific about 1,100 kilometers east of Japan. The US, South Korea and Japan condemned the slaughter in the strongest possible terms.
AP/Ahn Young-Joon North Korea has increased the number of missile tests since late September
As a precaution, Japan has asked residents of the northeast and central parts of the country to stay in their homes for safety. The US and South Korean “Vigilant Storm” air force’s major exercise with hundreds of fighter jets, which began on Monday, has been extended in light of developments. Originally, it was supposed to end on Friday.
Luftwaffe “merciless” exercise
There are different explanations for why Kim is turning the climbing screw so much. Air force exercise is one of them – but not the only one. North Korea considers the maneuver a “reckless” military provocation. US F-35 stealth jets, which are difficult for North Korean air defenses to detect, are particularly problematic for North Korea, political scientist Mason Richey told Portal.
The current missile launches were not the usual reaction to Allied maneuvers, analyzed US expert Adam Mount. They were made to increase tensions. As early as 2010 and 2017, Pyongyang followed a similar pattern: raising concerns about an escalation and then demanding concessions from South Korea, Japan and the US in particular.
Simultaneous tests of IR/ICBMs and SRBMs are ominous because they indicate plans to strike distant US targets away from the peninsula during a conflict at the pen. Alarming, but not surprising. Combat – as opposed to retaliation – has become commonplace in recent statements of nuclear doctrine. https://t.co/MUfIz03ARH
— Adam Mount (@ajmount) November 3, 2022
The simultaneous launch of short- and long-range missiles and other weapons is worrying because it indicates that North Korea is preparing to strike distant US targets during a military conflict on the peninsula, Mount said.
“This aggression never seen before”
Kim Jong Dae, a former adviser to the South Korean Defense Ministry, sees a new level of escalation in the current situation. Until now, North Korea only retaliated when the military exercises ended, now there were missile tests during the maneuver: “We’ve never seen this boldness and aggression before, it’s something completely different. The North is behaving like a nuclear state,” he said. him to the BBC.
In addition, there is no starting point for missile tests that can be accurately hit, but several, according to the North Korea expert: “North Korea threatens multidimensionally, systematically and at the same time that it can fire (missiles, note) anywhere in your country. This is a situation I am experiencing for the first time.”
IAEA sees evidence of nuclear test
North Korea has completed all technical preparations for a nuclear weapons test, according to South Korean and US officials. The last took place in 2017. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi said last week that there were growing signs of an imminent test of nuclear weapons by North Korea. A nuclear weapons test would be further confirmation that the program is “going full steam ahead in an incredibly worrying way.”
Graphics: APA/ORF.at; Source: APA/CSIS
Nuclear tests amid heightened tensions could change the perception of the US and its allies. The more Kim demonstrates North Korea’s dangerousness, the more he hopes to negotiate concessions.
Bringing North Korea to the International Stage
Kim is attracting international attention, especially in the United States, where parliamentary elections will take place next week. “Politically and diplomatically, Kim’s goal is to persuade the United States to reverse its hostile policies ahead of the midterm elections, making it clear to voters that the government’s (US President Joe’s) policy toward North Korea is Biden failed,” said North Korea expert Yang. Moo Jin told Portal.
In light of the war in Ukraine and China’s authoritarian course, North Korea and an easing of the sanctions regime have dropped onto the international agenda. For US President Biden and South Korea, complete denuclearization is a prerequisite for sanctions relief. But Kim only positioned his country as a nuclear weapons state in early September. There can be no negotiations on nuclear weapons, Kim clarified. The country’s new nuclear weapons law provides for the right to a first nuclear strike in self-defense.
Japan has more defense
The signs are pointing in the direction of the climb. The US reportedly began moving offensive weapons, including F-22 stealth jets, to the US base in Okinawa, Japan. Missile tests are also having an impact on Japanese policy, as are Chinese threats against Taiwan – albeit not in the sense of likely intentional intimidation by North Korea.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida wants to significantly increase the defense budget. Japan is also considering purchasing Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US. This would allow Japan to attack targets in China and North Korea for the first time since World War II.