A growing belief in western capitals that they should send modern main battle tanks to Ukraine marks an important shift in the mindset of Kyiv’s allies.
“That’s what it means [Ukraine] may move from resistance to expelling Russian troops from Ukrainian soil,” British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said this week when he confirmed Britain would send a squadron of Challenger 2 tanks and dozens of self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine.
As NATO defense ministers meet on Friday to coordinate a new arms package, Western capitals are realizing that Ukraine may have only a narrow window to act — if Kyiv is to launch a successful counterattack before Russia rearms and reinforces depleted forces .
“This is a game changer because Russia is taking steps that clearly show it does not believe the war is lost,” said David Petraeus, former director of the CIA and retired four-star general in charge of U.S. operations in Iraq and Iraq headed in Afghanistan.
Analysts and officials warned that this shifting Western calculus does not necessarily mean an end to the current dripping arms shipments to Kyiv – partly because some Western capitals fear it could lead to a Russian military escalation.
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A pivotal moment will come on Friday at the US Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany, where Britain, Poland and Finland will try to persuade a reluctant Berlin to supply Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv and, crucially, other governments to allow this. The US is not expected to commit to sending American-made Abrams tanks.
Berlin has so far refused, fearing the move could escalate the war and expose Germany to Moscow’s wrath. German officials insist they will not deploy tanks unless the US joins the initiative.
Behind the scenes, the U.S. supports Germany sending tanks but is not pushing Berlin to do so, officials said.
“We do not coax or attempt to manipulate a nation’s decision about what it wants to provide,” said a government official. “We respect these sovereign decisions and are grateful for all the weapons that Germany is willing to supply.”
There is a growing consensus among Kiev’s supporters that Ukraine needs more offensive firepower to break the deadlock on the battlefield before Moscow sends more mobilized troops to the front line.
Ukraine needs a “significant increase in support,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told Portal at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday, saying the war has reached a “decisive moment.”
“Ukraine’s armed forces have available reserves and Western assistance,” said Jack Watling, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank in London. “The Russian armed forces are currently at a low point. But Russia has already mobilized 300,000 troops. By the end of 2023, Russia’s military industrial production could also skyrocket. So there is a military and political imperative to act now.”
Donating western tanks could provide several benefits. It would make Ukraine less dependent on Soviet-era tanks, for which supplies of ammunition and spare parts are limited.
Supplying Kyiv with enough artillery ammunition is a real challenge, a Western official said. So if Kyiv had more armor for offensive operations, it wouldn’t have to rely so much on artillery bombardments to level Russian positions.
Wallace said another goal of sending tanks and self-propelled howitzers is to allow Kyiv to achieve “a combined arms effect” — operations that integrate armor, artillery and infantry. The US began combined arms training for Ukrainian forces in Germany this week.
Washington has pledged to send dozens of Bradley infantry fighting vehicles to Kyiv and is finalizing plans to deploy 100 Stryker fighting vehicles, both essential to mobile warfare. However, it has so far refused to provide Abrams tanks, arguing that they are more difficult for Ukrainian forces to refuel and maintain than the German-built Leopards.
When asked if the US would send Abrams to Ukraine, US Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl said “I don’t think we’re there yet,” citing maintenance and logistical challenges. But he said Berlin should not feel alone in sending Leopards, citing Britain’s decision to send Challenger tanks.
“I think if there was concern about being alone in delivering this capability, that shouldn’t be a concern, but the German government will make a sovereign decision,” he said.
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Kiev’s partners once considered sending tanks taboo amid the risk that Russia would see such a move as a casus belli with the West.
Gustav Gressel, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank in Berlin, said “that the Rubicon was crossed long ago with the deployment of artillery, armored artillery and Himars [precision-guided rockets]“. Putin’s “red lines” regarding Western military support for Kyiv have been “washed away”.
Washington has backed proposals to send European tanks to Ukraine. Pentagon press secretary Brigadier General Patrick Ryder said last week that Britain and Germany could send tanks without US involvement. “We support any kind of ability that gives Ukrainians an advantage on the battlefield,” he said.
However, some European officials suspect that Washington’s refusal to send even a token contingent of Abrams – thereby giving German Chancellor Olaf Scholz political cover for providing Leopards – reflected ongoing US concerns about the risk of an escalation.
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Washington has turned down Ukrainian requests for longer-range precision missiles like ATACMs with a range of 300 km or modern fighter jets like the F-16 over concerns they could be used to hit Russian territory in the way it was once used for tanks case was .
On Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that Western arms shipments that could hit Russia and Russian-controlled areas like Crimea would “take the conflict to a new level,” according to Interfax. “Even discussing this is extremely dangerous,” he added.
Another problem is that training Ukrainian forces to use modern western tanks could take months.
Additionally, some Western officials and analysts question how much progress Ukraine can make even if it is bolstered with more armaments. Although Ukrainian forces overcame weak Russian defenses to retake Kharkiv province in the autumn, they made great efforts to liberate Kherson.
“Their strategy is to bleed the Russians dry,” said a European security official, “but the Ukrainians are bleeding too.”