Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the first round of Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday by almost three points over incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro. Both will contest the second round of the election campaign.
Give the results left-wing Lula da Silva 47.4% of the vote versus 44% for far-right Bolsonaro with 92.9% of the vote. The night was bittersweet for the head of state, who went from leading the count from the start to seeing his opponent overtake him at the end.
The results leave Lula below the polls’ forecasts, while Bolsonaro managed to add more than expected for his re-election.
The tally released by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) allows us to anticipate that the leader of the Labor Party (PT) will face the far-right leader in a second round, scheduled for October 30, to determine the presidency.
According to Brazilian electoral legislation, the two candidates with the most valid votes in the first ballot, ie the blank and zero votes have been subtracted, must be measured in one ballot if no candidate receives more than half the votes. .
“A few turbulent weeks await Brazil before the second round on October 30th. No matter who wins the presidency, Bolsonarianism will be very much alive in Congress and the Senate. If Lula wins, he is likely to encounter fierce resistance,” political scientist Oliver Stuenkel wrote on Twitter.
Brazilians also voted to elect the 513 MPs, a third of the senators, the governors, and hundreds of state and federal district deputies.
Gubernatorial candidates allied with Bolsonaro won in the three most populous states of Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio Janeiro. In these last two states even in the first round.
Bolsonaro, who has scored between six and seven points above the polls and led the way until being outperformed by Lula on 70% of the trials, now faces the challenge of reversing the results, something that hasn’t happened since redemocratization has happened.