Are you ready for Blue Monday, the day that this year falls at the beginning of this week, billed by former Cardiff University psychologist Cliff Arnall in 2005 as the most depressing 24 hours on the calendar?
Arnall’s damning conclusion about the third Monday of the first month (which he’s been trying to counter ever since) was based on analysis of data such as consumer surveys, divorce filings and weather reports. The main conclusion many of us draw from this analysis is that not all academic research is useful to society.
If you’re a global leader or executive, at least have the World Economic Forum in Davos to take your mind off the January blues. The FT Live team will also be in the Swiss spa town hosting several in-person and digital events where leaders from politics, business and finance will share insights into the big issues being discussed. Here you can view the events and register for free.
For the rest of us, we’ll just have to live with the bleak economic news in 2023 and hope things can only get better.
When you are in the UK the prevailing reality is mass strikes. This may not be anywhere near a second “Winter of Discontent”, at least according to my colleague Jonathan Guthrie, but another strike vote among emergency workers is due this week, while the University and College Union announces a wave of 18 new strikes this week, which covered 150 UK universities in February and March after their members voted to reject their latest salary offer last week.
The Northern Ireland Protocol is set to rear its head again with the deadline for restoring power-sharing at Stormont on Thursday. Don’t expect it to make you feel better in life or in cross-border politics.
Abortion rights activists march from Washington Square Park to Bryant Park in New York last June © Alex Kent/AFP/Getty Images
Sunday marks the 50th anniversary of the US Supreme Court’s Roe vs Wade ruling, which enshrined Americans’ constitutional right to abortion. This is, of course, a very lively debate – even extending into the courtroom – in the wake of last year’s Supreme Court decision to overturn the 1973 decision. Anti-abortion activists will march in Washington on Friday, sparking further comment on a fundamental US political fault line.
The week ends with another man-made day, this time based on astronomy: the Lunar New Year celebration. This year’s mass movement of people visiting families and friends to celebrate the occasion will come in the shadow of rising Covid levels in China. Concerns about the impact on the spread of disease are high.
A little further ahead you can look forward to an evening with FT columnist Martin Wolf. Join Martin and other thought leaders online in an exclusive event for subscribers on January 31 to discuss the key changes needed during this time of great global uncertainty. The discussion coincides with the publication of Martin’s new book, The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism. Register here for free.
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Tesco CEO Ken Murphy has warned that UK inflation could continue to rise © Luke MacGregor/Bloomberg
This week there will be a brisk flood of data from China, Great Britain and the USA. The European Central Bank will publish the minutes of its December meeting on Thursday, and various central bankers will discuss regional and global economies in Davos.
The UK inflation rate will be updated on Wednesday. The outlook is not good, especially after recent comments from Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill. Ken Murphy, CEO of the UK’s largest grocery retailer, Tesco, even warned that UK inflation could continue to rise. Last month’s release showed that the cost of living, as defined by the consumer price index, was 10.7 percent in November, compared with 11.1 percent in October.
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We’re in the midst of the first earnings season of 2023 and it’s a hodgepodge of companies, particularly from Europe and (when Wall Street returns from the Martin Luther King day break) the US.
Online ordering services Just Eat Takeaway and Deliveroo will update investors on their celebratory sales on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Both are under pressure to achieve improved profitability. The end of the lockdown hasn’t boded well for the food ordering apps as customers opted to return to restaurants.
The question now is whether the recession will help these businesses — as more people get takeout instead of eating out — or continue to hit them as customers reluctantly return to their own kitchens. Efforts to increase grocery sales through partnerships with supermarkets and convenience apps like Getir could also give Deliveroo and JET a slice of the home cooking market.
The past year has been one to forget for Ocado Retail. The online supermarket jointly owned by Ocado – which reports figures on Tuesday – and Marks and Spencer parted ways with chief executive Melanie Smith and warned several times of profits; its sales are expected to fall for the first time in its history.
Public attention focused on technical glitches at low-cost airline Southwest Airlines © Rick Bowmer/AP
In its last update in September, Ocado said it expects strong subscriber growth and revenue growth of around 5 percent for the fourth quarter. That would be similar to the growth recorded by Tesco and J Sainsbury’s last week after UK shoppers gushed at length for the first Christmas in two years about not being bothered by Covid-19.
US airlines report fourth-quarter and full-year results as public attention focuses on technical glitches at low-cost carrier Southwest Airlines and the country’s top aviation authority that led to high-profile meltdowns. But the news is likely still rosy for most airlines as (despite post-Covid increased interest in private jets) demand for commercial air travel is driving profits.
United Airlines will report on Wednesday. Expect Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby to have some sharp words for the US Federal Aviation Administration, which grounded planes for two hours on Wednesday when a corrupted database file caused a key safety system to fail. He said over the summer that the agency needed more air traffic controllers.