The war in Ukraine has so shaken up world politics that one can talk about the before and after, just as the fall of the USSR or September 11, 2001 profoundly shaped international relations.
The lessons of the war in Ukraine have not yet been fully learned as the outcome of the war is uncertain. A year into this war, however, some lessons are already evident.
1. Vladimir Putin’s Russia cannot be saved.
Putin can’t go back and no democracy will trust his government anymore. This means sanctions against Russia will remain in place unless the regime changes.
Whether Russia wins this war or not, it will take decades to recover. Although Russia is the largest country in the world, its economy only ranks 11th.
2. NATO plays an irreplaceable role in defending democracies.
The leaders of 1949 are to be thanked for founding NATO. Without this organization, Putin’s Russia would probably have invaded some other Eastern European countries. And to say that in December 2021 Emmanuel Macron thought NATO was “brain dead”. European democracies could count on NATO to invade Ukraine. It is doubtful whether a European defense organization would have effectively replaced NATO.
3. Russia has worsened China’s international position.
China has already faced great difficulties in dealing with democracies and their allies, partly because of its selfish and irresponsible handling of the COVID19 pandemic in the early stages.
But the grand declaration of friendship between China and Russia, unveiled at the Beijing Winter Olympics, drew a parallel between the two dictatorships. A parallel that Chinese governments have tried to erase since the Mao era. This parallel will hurt China even more if Putin loses the war in Ukraine.
4. Democracies are more valuable.
Democracies had a bad habit of dealing with dictatorships as if they were democracies. In 2023, it would be even more unacceptable to see a Donald Trump do the rogue sand dance in Saudi Arabia.
The leaders of democracies have recognized the fragility of democracies and their unique value. This narrowed their ranks. This effect is particularly visible in Europe, where the European Union can count on new life.
5. Russia has lost much of its deterrent power, but it worries more than ever.
The Russian army appeared much weaker than expected. The whole planet is watching that Russian armaments are of inferior quality to the armaments of the United States and its allies.
This is encouraging several countries to reconsider their military alliance with Russia and choose arms suppliers other than the Russians. On the other hand, the countries around Russia, with the exception of China, can only see Russia’s warmongering intentions to strengthen their alliances against Russia while at the same time arming more.
The war in Ukraine thus favors a rapprochement with the United States. Of course, American democracy itself is at a crucial stage in its existence, and should it ever fall, its fall would also bring about upheavals in international relations. But that’s another question.
