Ex-President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is still the big favorite for the presidential election in Brazil, which he could even win in the first round, according to the Datafolha Institute poll published on the eve of the election on Saturday evening. The data released by the reference institute is stable compared to that of the survey published on Thursday.
Lula, leader of the left, would get 50% of valid votes (excluding zero and white) against 36% for his direct opponent, far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, according to the poll. A candidate must meet the 50% plus one vote threshold to be elected in the first round and avoid the second round scheduled for October 30.
According to Datafolha, voting intentions are stable with Lula winning 48% and Bolsonaro 34%. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points. The poll was conducted on Friday and Saturday with a larger-than-usual sample of 12,800 people.
Jair Bolsonaro assures that the polls are “wrong” and that he will be elected in the first round. Another poll released by another institute, Ipec, grants Lula 51% of valid votes in Sunday’s 1st round versus 37% for Bolsonaro.