In a major shift in Brazil’s stance on the MoscowKiev conflict, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be on the phone with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the next few days to try to position Brazil as an interlocutor for an eventual mediation process in the War completing a year in Europe. The conversation arose after the chancellors of both countries met in Munich this Saturday.
The date of the interview must be set after the carnival holidays in Brazil. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will also visit the country in April.
In an interview with CNN, Lula said Lula made a “historic mistake” by promoting the invasion of Ukrainian territory and that Brazil, in joint notes with other governments, accepted the fact that the aggressor was Vladimir Putin’s government . But Brasília insists this does not mean the country will go to war in support of Ukrainians.
The government in Kiev has also sent a positive signal with Brazil’s proposal to include, for the first time, an appeal for an end to hostilities in a resolution that will be put to the vote at next week’s UN General Assembly.
The resolution marks a year of conflict and reaffirms condemnation of the invasion. Like Brazil in 2022, Itamaraty should again back the text as Ukrainians get the green light to accept a request for an end to hostilities.
In Munich, during the world’s most important security conference, Brazil’s Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira held more than a dozen bilateral meetings at which the issue of war was raised. One of the meetings just took place with the Ukrainian Chancellor Dmytro Kuleba.
Contrary to what happened in the first weeks of the Lula government, foreign interlocutors gave up their requests to Brazil for ammunition for Ukraine. According to sources, the international community has already “priced in” Itamaraty’s position and knows that Brazil will not be directly involved in the war.
Mauro Vieira has been with the head of diplomacy from Europe, the UK and several other countries for the past two days. The meetings come after Lula has already spoken to the leaders of France, Germany and the US about his position and his insistence that a group must be formed to act as mediators in the war. The Brazilian chancellor made it clear in an exclusive interview with UOL that he doesn’t believe a single country can act as mediator.
New offensive before chance for peace
For foreign governments, Brazil’s stance of staying out of the conflict could be “useful” when the situation enters a moment of peaceseeking. But the perception is that this is not going to happen at this point.
There are preparations for an offensive on both sides, and therefore a chance for peace should come in just two months.
At this moment, therefore, the speech of Brazil may be relevant.
The Ukrainian government is working with its European partners to ensure that a 10point plan can be the start of a peace dialogue. However, the Brazilian government considers that not all items are necessary for the mediation to begin.
Brazil also stayed away from the war throughout Jair Bolsonaro’s administration. But he avoided contacts with the Ukrainian government. Days before the war broke out, former President Vladimir Putin even paid a visit.