It has felt like a long wait for fans and members of the Kansas City Chiefs.
The first home playoff game since the AFC Championship collapsed last year is finally here: the Chiefs host the Jacksonville Jaguars for a kickoff Saturday – 3:30 p.m. Arrowhead time. Kansas City goes into the weekend as the favorite at 8.5 points, according to DraftKings SportsBook.
It’s the weekend’s widest span, with oddsmakers weighing the residual advantage for Kansas City against the fatigue a young Jaguars team could face in its third straight win-or-go-home scenario. On top of that, the forecast for the Florida team is for a cold, wintry day.
There are five things I have to watch for in the division round showdown:
1. Start hot from the blocks
Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images
The Jaguars of Hearts came from behind in the fourth quarter and have won four of their last eight games. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw four interceptions to put them in a 27-0 hole last weekend, but he also brought them out again as he settled in and played more comfortably.
That second-half attitude can’t wait long to show itself this weekend. There’s no reason for Lawrence to feel any real pressure in a game where many don’t give him a chance. That, with the confidence garnered from a historic post-season comeback, could see the No. 1 performing a full four quarters of the overall pick.
This wouldn’t come back against Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill or the combination of former Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien and quarterback Deshaun Watson. This offense is efficient enough to score in bursts AND maintaining a lead so the Chiefs can’t play around out of goal like they’ve done in many postseason games.
2. Matches Jaguar’s wide receivers
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When these two teams first met, the Jaguars’ offense wasn’t having its most impressive day. The big plays they had came from slot receiver Christian Kirk, who beat slot cornerback L’Jarius Sneed in coverage.
According to the PFF, Sneed covered Kirk on four targets. Kirk converted those for 54 yards, three first downs, and two touchdowns. The sway and quick changes of direction got the most out of Sneed, who covers best when he’s hands on and physical with a receiver.
That game was only the second in rookie cornerback Trent McDuffie’s return from his Week 1 injury. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have trusted McDuffie more in the slot — and sidelined Sneed on those occasions.
This change is perfect to match with Jacksonville. Kirk plays over 75% of his snaps in the slot and McDuffie fits better to defend Kirk’s playstyle. It also allows Sneed to keep up and potentially have an edge over solid, experienced receivers like Marvin Jones Jr. and Zay Jones.
3. A crawling Mahomes
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In Week 10, the Jaguars used their front to build pressure without relying on blitz. The unit blitzed Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes just twice.
It’s what they probably want to do again – trust that the playmakers they have in their frontline can wreak enough havoc to make backend coverage difficult to pick apart. There were some overloaded pockets in the first matchup, but Mahomes negated them by effectively crawling. He’s earned 40 yards in five scrambles, and that’s become a trend of his this year.
Patrick Mahomes has climbed 119 consecutive times without being fired, the longest streak in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
Mahomes also holds the second longest streak (108 scrambles), which lasted from week 11, 2019 to week 5, 2020.#Kingdom of Chiefs pic.twitter.com/eRoSnY6dtb
– Next Gen Statistics (@NextGenStats) January 19, 2023
Mahomes is very efficient in his decision-making, as evidenced by the fact he hasn’t climbed into a sack since the AFC Championship in 2021 – two years ago!
That ability will be important against Jacksonville, especially on obvious losses when the Jaguars are sending four edging guys at once. Scrambling can not only negate that pressure, but free Mahomes from forcing a throw that doesn’t exist against seven in cover.
4. Bag guard for Chris Jones
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In Week 10, Chris Jones had two sacks against Jacksonville – and this time he’d really, really like to get another.
It would be Jones’ first sack of his NFL playoff career. In those 12 career playoff games, he has 22 tackles, two tackles for losses, nine passes defended, four hits at the quarterback … but no sacks. He’s sick of hearing about it from a writer like me.
In a playful tone, we note that Chris Jones was hoping to avoid the question but plans to get his first career playoff sack “just to shut you guys up.”
— Vahe Gregorian (@vgregorian) January 19, 2023
He has a good matchup for that. The Jaguars’ offensive line ranked 31st in ESPN’s team pass block win rate this season. They’ve allowed a sack to a defensive tackle in each of their last two games. Watch for Jones to finally get his postseason takedown.
5. Nervousness in playoff debut
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The Chiefs will demand a lot from players making their NFL postseason debuts on Saturday. Rookies like McDuffie, defensive end George Karlaftis, running back Isiah Pacheco and cornerback Jaylen Watson are all in key positions while also coping with the added pressure of the playoffs.
Additionally, wide receiver Kadarius Toney will see an X Factor playmaker on the postseason stage for the first time in his career.
It adds up to the Chiefs relying on a lot of postseason inexperience to succeed:
- They’ll need pressure from the edge, and Karlaftis has three more sacks since Week 12 than veteran edge rushers Carlos Dunlap and Frank Clark combined.
- Pacheco has 98 more carries this season than any other Chiefs running back. He has become the workhorse the team relies on but has also fumbled four times.
- Watson was in the starting lineup all season before solidifying as a third cornerback in the final quarter of the regular season. The seventh-round rookie will face veterans on the outside.
- With the news that wide receiver Mecole Hardman won’t play, Toney will play a very important role in the deception aspect of the Chiefs’ offense; he will also be crucial in the red zone.