The inflation rate in Germany dropped significantly in December due to falling energy prices and the state’s advance on natural gas. In the six countries relevant to the provisional calculation of the national inflation rate, consumer prices rose between 8.1 and 9.2 percent compared to the same month last year. This emerges from data published by statistical offices on Tuesday.
In November, the national inflation rate dropped to 10.0%, after reaching its highest level since 1951, from 10.4% in October. The Federal Statistical Office wants to give its first estimate for last month in the afternoon. Economists surveyed forecast a drop in the inflation rate to 9.1 percent. It was lowest in Hesse (8.1 percent), Baden-Württemberg (8.5 percent), North Rhine-Westphalia and Saxony (8.7 percent each), Brandenburg (9.1 percent) and Bavaria (9.2 percent). ) right up.
“The worst has gone”
“We probably survived the worst of inflation,” Berenberg Bank Chief Economist Holger Schmieding commented on the development. “But we still can’t take a deep breath.” In the most populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia, for example, the so-called core inflation – in which energy and food prices are deducted – even accelerated from 4.6 to 4.9%. This shows that more companies outside the energy sector are passing their high electricity, heat and fuel costs on to consumers.
“At the beginning of the year, higher energy costs may increase the rate of inflation again,” said Schmieding. “Through March, however, inflation should decline sharply, as war-related energy and food price increases thereafter will fall out of year-on-year comparison.” By the end of the year, the inflation rate might even drop below the three percent mark.
it’s not all clean
The drop in inflation has less to do with the brake on energy prices than with significantly lower oil and gasoline prices, said ING’s chief economist, Carsten Brzeski. “We won’t see the energy price brake in the data until March.” The state took over natural gas advances in December. For private consumers of gas, electricity and district heating, a legal maximum price for 80 percent of the previous year’s consumption will also apply from March – this price limit will be retrospectively credited for January and February.
Brzeski still hasn’t worked out. “In the coming months, inflation could rise again,” said Brzeski. Many consumers would not receive the increase in gas and electricity prices until January. Food can also become more expensive, as prices in agriculture are usually renegotiated in January. (apa)