by Giuseppe Sarcina
On the eve of the Ramstein summit. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy calls for tanks, air defense systems, heavy artillery: “They are needed immediately”
The forecast is shared in Washington and in the main European capitals: in the spring, the clash between the Russian and Ukrainian armies will be furious. Zelenskyy begs, almost begs, the Americans and other allies to hurry up. The issue now is the race against time. We need more weapons now. Tanks, air defense systems, heavy artillery. The generals in Kyiv argue that they must be deployed in a few weeks at the latest, otherwise it will be difficult, if not impossible, to force Putin’s army to withdraw further. Military and political strategy are intertwined, as has always happened since the beginning of the conflict, as evidenced by the first-hand information we gathered from American and European diplomatic sources on the eve of the summit at Ramstein Air Force Base scheduled for tomorrow, Friday , January 20. A summit that was expected to greatly accelerate arms shipments.
The first replies have already arrived. Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin, sponsor and leader of the “Contact Group,” which brings together more than 40 countries, will unveil a new $2.5 billion military aid package. The deliveries also include the Stryker armored combat vehicles for the first time.
But that’s not enough. And then the US government has been increasing the pressure on Germany in particular for a few days.
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Today, Thursday, January 19th, Austin is passing by Berlin to try to convince the new German defense minister, Boris Pistorius, to send the Leopard 2 tanks, the best on the market, or at least the other states that they have to empower. like Poland and Finland. Germany’s hesitation threatens to become a serious political problem within the Western coalition.
This time, too, Italy will play a more visible role than in previous meetings. The government led by Giorgia Meloni has already decided to provide a battery of the Samp-T anti-aircraft system. Another is said to come from the French, who are involved in the construction of the “Samp-T”. But even in this case the problem is to speed up the delivery. There are still some technical issues that need to be fixed. But only one mail is supposed to arrive in Kyiv; The second will instead be transferred to an eastern country, apparently Slovakia, which in turn will give Patriot missiles to Zelensky. Yesterday Francesco Talò, diplomatic adviser to Giorgia Meloni, spoke to Wendy Sherman, number two at the State Department, in Washington.
The hectic armament maneuvers are the result of a decidedly gloomy political-diplomatic scenario. Any prospect of negotiation has completely disappeared on the horizon. The Chinese have told G7 interlocutors (including Italy) not to overestimate their ability to influence Putin. The United States has acknowledged that Beijing will not change its ambiguous position: political support for the Kremlin; but, as far as US intelligence services know, no military aid for now. The Turks also raised their hands. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan keeps channels open with Putin, but with no tangible progress. The French head of state Emmanuel Macron had to scale back his ambitions: At the moment his main concern is to ensure the safety of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant.
In conclusion, the G7 analysts concluded that the “unprecedented” sanctions against Russia have not had the desired effect. In 2022, gross domestic product fell by 6%: a significant drop, but not the catastrophic drop that was expected. The Pentagon sums it up: Putin is still able to mobilize a large mass of soldiers and equipment to start the March offensive. Biden has therefore decided to take another step forward and supports, as the New York Times writes, the willingness of the Ukrainians to also attack targets in Crimea, where more than 60,000 Russian soldiers are barricaded, including to defend the naval base in Sevastopol .
Attention, but that doesn’t mean that the White House shares the idea of a total reconquest of the areas occupied by the Russians in 2014, including Crimea. The military plan is to be distinguished from the political-diplomatic one. Washington’s concern, for now, is that Zelensky has what it takes to withstand the impact in the spring. Only then, when the conditions are right, can negotiations with the Kremlin be considered.
Jan 19, 2023 (change Jan 19, 2023 | 1:44 p.m.)
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