A Polish Leopard 2 captured during an international military exercise in Germany in 2022. (Armin Weigel, Associated Press)
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Kyiv – The Western alliance’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine received a shot in the arm this week, when several European nations for the first time heeded President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s long-standing call to supply modern main battle tanks to Kyiv.
France, Poland and the UK have pledged to soon send tanks to Ukraine’s military to help in its efforts to protect itself from Russia. Finland is considering following this example.
Britain plans to send a dozen Challenger 2 tanks and additional artillery systems as part of efforts to “step up” support to Ukraine, Downing Street has said. Zelenskyy thanked Prime Minister Rishi Sunak “for the decisions that will not only strengthen us on the battlefield but will also send the right signal to other partners” after the two leaders spoke by phone on Saturday.
Polish President Andrzej Duda said Wednesday alongside Zelenskyy in the Ukrainian city of Lviv that he hopes tanks from a number of Western allies “can soon enter Ukraine via various routes and strengthen Ukraine’s defences”.
The moves have put pressure on Germany, which last week said it would move infantry fighting vehicles to Kyiv but has yet to commit to sending tanks. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has insisted that any such plan must be fully coordinated with the entire Western alliance, including the United States.
Western officials told CNN that the decision by some countries, but not others, to send more tanks was part of a broader assessment of what was happening on the ground in Ukraine. NATO allies have spoken at length in recent weeks about which countries are best placed to provide specific types of assistance, be it military equipment or money.
A senior Western diplomat suggested more countries could increase their military support in the coming weeks as the war enters a new phase, and a new Russian offensive could be just around the corner as the invasion anniversary approaches.
But Germany’s support is seen as crucial. Thirteen European countries, including Poland and Finland, own modern German Leopard 2 tanks, which were introduced in 1979 and have been upgraded several times since then, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
While any re-export of the tank by these nations would normally require German government approval, Berlin has suggested that it would not block their transfer to Kyiv.
Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said Thursday that Berlin would not stand in the way of other countries re-exporting Leopard tanks.
“Germany should not stand in the way of other countries making decisions to support Ukraine, regardless of what decisions Germany makes,” said Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck on Thursday on the sidelines of a Green party conference in Berlin.
Deputy German government spokeswoman Christiane Hoffmann said Friday she had received no official request from Poland or Finland.
“There is no question to which we have to say no. But we’re saying right now that we’re in an ongoing exchange about what’s right at this time and how best to support Ukraine,” Hoffmann told reporters.
General Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top military commander, told The Economist in December that the military needed about 300 tanks to repel the Russians. The European Council on Foreign Relations estimates that around 2,000 Leopard tanks are spread across Europe.
Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said on Thursday he was confident that the tanks promised by European partners would be delivered “very, very quickly” and that the Ukrainian armed forces would “master the use of tanks” within a few weeks”.
The NATO members’ decision to send the tanks to Ukraine is not an uncontroversial move. In private, German diplomats express their fear that this is an escalation in the West’s reaction to Russia and that Moscow will see it as a provocation.
Other European officials argue that the West has already transferred many other advanced weapons that have been used to kill Russians, as well as provided intelligence that has been used extensively to benefit Ukraine. Notably, the US has delivered its advanced long-range HIMARS missile systems to Ukraine, which have helped it turn the tide of the war in recent months. Given that, officials claim, sending in additional tanks is not such a significant escalation, regardless of what Moscow might say.
While European allies remain largely united in their support for Ukraine, diplomats speaking to CNN said there were disagreements over whether sending in tanks and more weapons was the quickest and most effective way to end the conflict.
According to the Kiel Institute’s tracker of how much nations have donated to Ukraine, Britain, France and Poland have given $7.5 billion, $1.5 billion and $3 billion, respectively. That money includes a combination of military, financial and humanitarian aid, with Poland having previously sent over 200 Soviet-style tanks.
European citizens remain strongly in favor of supporting Ukraine, according to a recent Eurobarometer poll, which showed that 74% thought European countries should continue to provide aid. That means that if Germany decides to align itself with France, Britain and Poland, it’s likely to find it has the political backing to deal with.
The UK and France are expected to continue to pressure Germany to join them in the coming days. If they succeed, it will mean that the three major European powers are acting in lockstep as the war nears its one-year anniversary.
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