As Ukraine’s formidable counter-offensive against Russian forces gathers momentum, so too are fears that an increasingly desperate Vladimir Putin will unleash nuclear Armageddon.
In recent days, Kiev’s troops have made notable progress on two fronts, penetrating Moscow’s defenses in the strategic Kherson region and threatening to cut Russian supply lines.
The tide has turned in this seven-month war. And so the tyrant on “the precipice of collapse,” as former White House National Security Adviser Gen. HR McMaster put it, is running out of options.
Vladimir Putin may be 70 today, but he has little to celebrate. He looks ill: his bloated face, clumsy gait and stooped posture have sparked rumors of serious illnesses, even cancer. Putin is out of time, out of luck and out of options. Only a quick victory can save him. Hence the raging fears of a nuclear escalation
Russia’s dictator has been rattling his nuclear saber on and off lately. But a chorus of pundits increasingly fear he means business this time
A chilling video, which may have been leaked on purpose, surfaced on social media platform Telegram this week. It showed a convoy of armored vehicles moving through what appeared to be central Russia. Immediately the internet was buzzing with rumors that the troop movement signaled a mobilization of Russia’s nuclear weapons program
The aging Russian president may turn 70 today, but he has little to celebrate. He looks ill: his bloated face, clumsy gait and stooped posture have sparked rumors of serious illnesses, even cancer.
Putin is out of time, out of luck and out of options. Only a quick victory can save him. Hence the raging fears of a nuclear escalation.
A chilling video, which may have been leaked on purpose, surfaced on social media platform Telegram this week. It showed a convoy of armored vehicles moving through what appeared to be central Russia. Immediately the internet was buzzing with rumors that the troop movement signaled a mobilization of Russia’s nuclear weapons program.
Perhaps even more alarmingly, Belgorod, a Russian nuclear-powered submarine armed with both ICBMs and the Poseidon underwater nuclear drone — which could sink western cities by creating a devastating tidal wave — appears to be putting to sea .
Although nuclear submarines are deployed regularly, the timing is ominous.
In this feverish atmosphere, it becomes clear why Polish President Andrzej Duda on Wednesday appealed to President Joe Biden to allow US nuclear weapons to be stationed in his country.
Russia’s dictator has been rattling his nuclear saber on and off lately. But a chorus of pundits increasingly fear he means business this time.
As British veteran Major General Jonathan Shaw put it this week, “Putin has nowhere else to go. So we should expect nuclear weapons.’
His warning is echoed by General Lord Dannatt, chief of the British Army until 2009, who has hinted that Putin could launch a nuclear weapon “into a desert”. . . just to show he means business.”
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin believes there are currently “no checks” on Putin and he could make another “irresponsible decision”. NATO issued a warning that a missile test – albeit with a dummy warhead – in the Kara Sea north of mainland Russia in the Arctic could be imminent.
Meanwhile, Kyiv has said it is distributing potassium iodide pills – which block the absorption of harmful radiation in the thyroid gland – to evacuation centers in anticipation of a nuclear attack.
So could Putin really be planning the unthinkable? Or is he just trying to make us believe it is him?
Much can depend on the capability and loyalty of a single Russian military unit.
The large convoy of armored vehicles spotted on a train this week is believed to have entered the area of responsibility of the “12. Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defence”.
As British veteran Major General Jonathan Shaw put it this week, “Putin has nowhere else to go. So we should expect nuclear weapons.’ Pictured: Ukrainian troops advancing on Russian positions
So could Putin really be planning the unthinkable? Or is he just trying to make us believe it is him?
This boring-sounding name hides its devastating power. Founded in 1947 by Stalin’s feared secret police chief, Lavrentiy Beria, the shadowy department oversees the research, production, stockpiling, deployment, and distribution of Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal.
This includes nearly 6,000 warheads – slightly more than America’s 5,400 – protected by the directorate’s own private army, including BPM-97 armored personnel carriers capable of withstanding mine and machine gun fire.
The 12th Directorate operates from an anonymous office building in Moscow and has bases across Russia. Its thousands of scientists, engineers, technicians, and logistics specialists work to bolster the Kremlin’s tattered claim to be a global superpower.
The management’s worldview has hardly changed since it was founded. Indeed, a former chief has decried the democratic reforms of the late 1980s as “the destruction of the state.”
Secrecy is absolute. Almost nothing is known about Igor Kolesnikov, head of the directorate since 2017 and apparently a working nuclear weapons specialist.
However, like other elements of the Kremlin’s military machinery, the 12th Directorate was beset by serious accidents. In 2019, five technicians died and others were badly irradiated while rescuing a nuclear-powered missile.
Its main achievement in recent years has been to bolster Russia’s “tactical” (short-range) nuclear arsenal – delivered by artillery shells, depth charges and missiles.
Moscow has also built and tested a ground-launched cruise missile: the weapon abolished by the 1987 arms control agreement that ended Europe’s Cold War nuclear standoff.
There is no denying the terrifying potential of this doomsday arsenal – but mercifully I believe we are still some way from the nightmarish scenario of a nuclear exchange between Putin and the West.
For one thing, there is no certainty as to what the convoy of vehicles driving through central Russia actually means.
Much can depend on the capability and loyalty of a single Russian military unit
Other units operate the same armored cars. As Russian generals fight to stem the Ukrainian advance, they scrape together units from across the country.
That could easily include the 12th Directorate’s “counter-sabotage” units, not the nuclear weapons themselves.
I have spent much of the last 40 years studying the Kremlin’s decision-making. While I’m deeply concerned about Putin’s paranoid mindset, let’s be clear: the real war – at least against NATO – is being waged on our collective nerves. And it will only get worse.
Russia’s annual “Grom” [Thunder] Nuclear exercises are routinely held in the fall and usually present a good opportunity for Putin to demonstrate his nuclear capabilities. We can expect even more of that this year.
The threat of Armageddon is one thing, but under Russian military doctrine, nuclear weapons can only be used in response to a nuclear attack, and in conventional war only when the country faces an “existential” threat.
Putin’s failures in Ukraine and the thwarting of his grandiose imperial claims are certainly humiliating. But nobody is trying to destroy Russia (at least from the outside: its collapse at the hands of the Kremlin’s mismanagement is all too possible).
Equally important, Putin cannot launch an attack at will: the Russian system has human and other safeguards in place to hold back an insane or impetuous leader.
There are also doubts as to whether Russia’s nuclear weapons would even work. Western and Chinese intelligence services have studied the Kremlin’s nuclear leadership and control – and the ways to sabotage it.
Regardless, any use of nuclear weapons by Putin, however limited and however remote from the battlefield or NATO territory, would elicit startling retaliation. Amid global panic and anger, Russia would immediately face North Korean isolation.
Retired US general and former CIA chief David Petraeus said last week that a US-led NATO response would “take out Russian conventional forces that we have on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and on every ship in the world.” can see and identify the Black Sea”. .
Our cyber arsenal would also be deployed. A US President could order computer giants like Microsoft, Apple and Google to disable almost every electronic device in Russia, bringing the economy to an immediate, crushing standstill.
So, on reasonable grounds, playing the nuclear card would only make things worse for Putin
So, on reasonable grounds, playing the nuclear card would only make things worse for Putin.
Only at the doomsday level – the exchange of strategic nuclear weapons – is Russia a potential adversary for the United States. But any country that engages in such a competition will end up being a smoking wasteland itself.
So while the stakes are high, we must view Russia’s maneuvers and mind games with a dose of skepticism – and counter Putin’s insane threats.