Allied intelligence services have learned from intercepted messages that top Russian commanders are gathering for a meeting that some Western governments believe was the key moment for military commanders to decide to launch an attack. This information was part of what led Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, to warn on Feb. 11 that a Russian attack could happen before the Olympics were over. Several officials also said at the time that U.S. officials had received intelligence that Russia was considering February 16 as a possible start date for hostilities. This prediction turned out to be wrong, albeit only for a few days.
Russian-Ukrainian war: what you need to know
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Critical City. Russia’s drive to capture key Ukrainian cities accelerated on the seventh day of the invasion when Russia claimed its forces were in control of Kherson, although Ukraine disputed that claim. New explosions broke out in Kyiv, and the siege of the city of Kharkov continued.
Russian convoy. Satellite images show a Russian military convoy stretching for 40 miles on a highway north of Kyiv, next to burning houses and buildings. Experts fear that the column could be used to encircle and cut off the capital, or for a full-scale assault.
Assessing that Russia might ignore China’s well-known desire to keep the peace through the Olympics, some US officials said Mr. Putin had multiple considerations. While these officials acknowledged the importance of Mr. Putin’s relationship with China, Russia wanted to launch and complete the offensive quickly before its troops became de-alerted. Mr. Putin, according to US officials, also did not want to be seen as overly deferential to any other authority.
Both U.S. and British intelligence officials also erroneously assessed that the supply problems that plagued Russian forces in Belarus during military exercises had been resolved, allowing the invasion to continue, according to a person briefed on the assessment. In fact, supply problems continued to hamper Russian forces as they advanced into Ukraine.
Since the beginning of the war, Chinese officials have consistently supported Russia. They expressed support for Russia’s concerns about NATO and said Russian and Ukrainian officials should negotiate. Recording of a telephone conversation between Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin, made by the Chinese government last Friday, confirmed these points. Representatives of the Chinese Foreign Ministry refused to call Russia’s actions an “invasion” and accused the United States of escalating tensions around Ukraine.
Chinese officials have also criticized sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and European countries.
On Wednesday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told a press conference in Beijing that Russia and Ukraine should “look for a political solution that takes into account the legitimate security interests of both sides.” China will continue to play a constructive role in helping to de-escalate the situation in Ukraine.”
China is trying to evacuate thousands of its citizens, including diplomats, from Ukraine. Prior to these efforts, there were about 6,000 citizens in Ukraine. At least one Chinese citizen was wounded in shelling on Tuesday while trying to leave Ukraine, Mr. Wang said. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Tuesday about Chinese citizens in the country, according to the official Chinese transcript of the conversation.