Something about the Chiefs’ upcoming AFC championship game differs from their previous four title game matchups in their current run. Kansas City, who have been the favorites for each of the past four years, opened as favorites again this season, but the line turned earlier in the week when KC went to a 1.5-point lead in Sunday’s showdown with the Cincinnati Bengals. became an outsider. On Thursday, the line flipped again, with the Chiefs now 1-point favorites according to Caesars Sportsbook.
As the line keeps jumping around, it’s worth noting that there’s solid reason the Bengals were briefly a rare title-game favorite. For one, they’ve beaten the Chiefs three times in the past two years, including last year’s thrilling AFC title game. Cincinnati overcame a 21-3 deficit to win the game in overtime after Bengals safety Vonn Bell picked up Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to set up Evan McPherson’s game-winning field goal in Kansas City.
Cincinnati recorded a 27-24 win over Kansas City in Week 13 after scoring the last 10 points of the game. Linebacker Germaine Pratt’s forced fumble from Travis Kelce early in the fourth quarter set up Burrows for a game-winning touchdown pass to Chris Evans.
Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Mahomes, who is likely to win his MVP in League Two next month, was asked about his team’s struggles against Cincinnati after the Week 13 loss.
“First, they have a great quarterback and a guy who’s won a lot of football games, even if it was in college, and now he’s won a lot of football games in the NFL,” Mahomes said. “He’s also someone who plays to the end. They have playmakers everywhere, they are well trained, they have good defence. At the end of the day they played at a higher level in critical situations.”
As Mahomes mentioned, Burrow was at his best in games against the Chiefs. In his first three games against the Chiefs, Burrow completed 72% of his passes with eight touchdowns against just one interception.
Speaking of quarterbacks, the severe ankle sprain Mahomes suffered in Saturday’s divisional round win over the Jacksonville Jaguars is certainly another reason why the Bengals are favored. Mahomes, injured in the first half, briefly left the game before finishing with 195 yards and two touchdowns on a 22-of-30 pass. However, Mahomes has been in full training since then and appears to be ready for action, which is likely to see the Chiefs back in favour.
The Bengals’ success outside of Cincinnati is likely another reason they were favored once this week. Including last Sunday’s win in Buffalo, the Bengals are 7-3 this season and have won their last five away games. Cincinnati is 8-3 in its last 11 games as the away favorite. Conversely, the Chiefs are 0-2 at home the last two seasons as a rare underdog.
Given their last three meetings, Sunday’s game is likely to be another close game between the two best teams in the AFC. Each of their last three matchups has been a three-point result, with the Bengals emerging victorious in each matchup.
The winner of Sunday’s game will further cement his place in history. Kansas City could become the eighth team to compete in at least three Super Bowls over a five-year period, and the first since the Patriots of the 2010s. The Bengals could become only the fifth team this century to compete in consecutive Super Bowls. Should they win the Super Bowl, Cincinnati would join the 1971 Cowboys, 1972 Dolphins and 2018 Patriots as the only teams to win the Super Bowl a year after losing the big game.