Promising a different approach, Obi hopes to defeat the traditional parties’ two favorites and political heavyweights: Atiku Aboubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
With speeches hailed as fresh and unifying – but slammed as populist by his detractors – the 61-year-old businessman has captured the attention of Nigeria’s young population, 60 percent of whom are under the age of 25.
“The current government is in a bad situation and many young people see it that people like Abubakar and Tinubu are part of the problem,” said Dele Babalola, Nigeria expert at Canterbury Christ Church University in Kent. “Obe is 61, but he’s the youngest of the candidates [the other two being in their 70s] and a fresh face.”
‘obedient’
Over the course of the five-month presidential campaign, Obi has gone from being a minor curiosity to a credible candidate, with tremendous social media support among Nigeria’s youth elevating his standing. Obi has also been endorsed by prominent Nigerian figures such as ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo and acclaimed writer Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie.
As Nigeria navigates an economic slump and a difficult security environment, Obi’s supporters (nicknamed “Obidients”) see him as an antidote to a political class they accuse of corruption and bad governance.
In this context, Obi has cultivated an image as one of integrity and prudence. “I have two children, they are graduates, they have never taken part in public life. I have a son who will be 29, 30 soon, he doesn’t own a car because he has to buy his own car, not me,” Obi said in a speech last year to applause from his supporters.
Obi’s candidacy first surfaced in October 2020 as Nigeria witnessed the #EndSARS protest movement – which saw young protesters demanding the disbandment of the SARS police force they accused of violence and benefiting from total immunity, a movement Obi broadly supported.
The #EndSARS movement then went further, denouncing corruption and economic inequality. These are burning issues in a country where oil revenues lavishly reward a small fraction of Nigerians, while almost half the population lives below the poverty line, according to the World Bank.
A Nigerian Macron?
Born to Christian parents of the Igbo ethnic group – Nigeria’s third largest – Obi has a background typical of the country’s business elite: studies at Lagos, Harvard and the London School of Economics, followed by a business career with several Nigerian leadership positions in Nigeria banks.
As an ex-banker looking to break out of the old bipartisan system and reinvigorate his country with a technocratic style of politics, Obi has drawn comparisons to French President Emmanuel Macron – who described himself as “neither left nor right” and swept his own political party traditional vehicles of social democracy and conservatism aside when he seized the Élysée Palace and then won an overwhelming parliamentary majority in 2017.
Obi became leader of the Nigerian Labor Party last year. Unlike the established British party of the same name, it is a rather marginal party – without much political machinery at the national level and without governors with power bases in the Nigerian provinces.
But “comparing Obi to Macron is a mistake,” said Ladipo Adamolekun, a Nigerian public administration expert and Francophile. “Macron has his En Marche! Party when France’s traditional parties were already in decline – that’s not the case with Obi.”
And unlike Macron – whose only political experience when he ran for the Élysée was a brief stint as François Hollande’s economy minister – Obi is far from a political neophyte.
Obi served as governor of Anambra, a southern Nigerian state, from 2006 to 2014 before running as the PDP’s vice-presidential candidate in the last presidential election in 2019. He has changed his political affiliation four times since 2022, prompting accusations of opportunism.
Obi’s critics also question his probity as he was mentioned in the Pandora Papers in 2021. However, his supporters say he has proven his integrity with effective leadership of Anambra during his eight-year tenure there, which ended with huge savings in the state coffers – a compelling argument in a debt-ridden economy.
Igbo vote ‘will not be enough’
But with all the hype about Obi, many analysts doubt that he can bring about a victory – despite strong poll numbers.
“In fact, many of the young people who have created all this social media hype live abroad and cannot vote in Nigeria,” Babalola said. “In terms of surveys, the figures in Africa are not as reliable as in Europe,” he added.
Then there is the classic phenomenon of low turnout among young voters – which could be amplified in Nigeria, which tends to have low turnout overall, with just 33 percent voting in the 2019 presidential election.
Finally, analysts doubt Obi can overcome the issues of ethnicity, religion and regional identity, all of which tend to be crucial factors in Nigerian voters’ elections. “The Igbo vote will not be enough for Obi to win,” Babalola insisted, while emphasizing the importance of winning votes in the predominantly Muslim north.
Whoever wins at the ballot box faces enormous challenges. Nigeria’s economy is Africa’s largest but is plagued by inflation exceeding 20 percent, fuel shortages, a lack of cash during the untimely introduction of new banknotes and an energy crisis causing frequent power outages.
Public finances are in bad shape with debt service eating up 41 percent of public spending in 2022. Moody’s downgrade of the country’s sovereign ratings in late January is unlikely to help matters.
“As things stand, I doubt that the new president will be able to establish good governance,” said Adamolekun, who advocates a “more decentralized federal system” to replace the current political structures.
“The new president will have to accept that the current political system is not conducive to effective governance,” Adamolekun said. “The 1999 constitution was too centralized, especially when it came to the police, and that’s a big factor in Nigeria’s security problems.”
Indeed, President Muhammadu Buhari’s last term in office was marked by a significant deterioration in Nigeria’s security situation, fueled by inter-ethnic conflict, criminal gang activity and jihadism. According to the United Nations, jihadist violence has killed more than 40,000 people in northeastern Nigeria since 2009 and displaced around 2.2 million.
Regardless of whether Obi pulls off all-powerful political turmoil, Nigeria’s new president will find plenty of challenges in his inbox.
This article has been translated from the original into French.