The war in Ukraine shifts the balance within NATO and opens up a crucial game in the western world. At the next summit in Madrid on June 28-30, two crucial issues will have to be resolved: the possible expansion of the Atlantic Alliance to include Sweden and Finland, and the request for reinforcements from the Baltic republics. Here, on the increasingly hot border between Russia and the West, with Saint Petersburg’s surface-to-air systems just 160 km from the Estonian city of Narva Fear of Russian aggression, always present, has become concrete over the past few months. NATO’s response to this fear and to the Sweden and Finland question will be a signal, not only to the allies, but above all to the enemy across the border. But according to the testimonies collected by Reuters, there is also a possibility that both issues will remain in the stalemate and neither the expansion of the alliance nor the deployment of new troops to the Baltic countries will progress. And that’s why the game could stay open.
The demands of the Baltic States: “We need 50,000 men”
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, a total of six million people joined NATO in 2004 after the 20th century was marked by bloody invasions: first Nazi Germany, then Soviet Russia. After independence from the USSR in the 1990s, fear of the Russian enemy just across the border remained an open wound. And now, with Moscow’s aggressive turn towards Ukraine, things are getting scary again: “After the war, I don’t think Russia will be defeated, they will still have tremendous military capabilities,” he said. Valdemaras Rupsys, Defense Chief of Lithuania. “After a while…they will try to threaten us with military means.” Because of this, the Baltic states have demanded a massive increase in NATO contingents on their territory: if about 5,000 soldiers are stationed, Riga and Tallinn are now demanding more. at least 50 thousand, and air and sea defense. And the new funds that came with the outbreak of war are not enough: the Pentagon has sent F-35 stealth fighters and attack helicopters, while Britain has increased the British contingent at Estonia’s Tapa base, which has reached 1,700 men.
Arms to Ukraine, here’s what Kyiv is asking for: from howitzers to MLRs multiple rocket launchers. “So we will end the war”
A new strategic plan in Madrid, but no new NATO bases
If Riga and Tallinn’s motion were accepted in Madrid on June 30, there would be more large gathering of NATO forces ready for combat in Europe since the end of the Cold War. But that seems unlikely.
According to Reuters, which has conducted various interviews, NATO officials speak of a maximum 15,000 soldiers throughout the Baltic States in addition, there are armed forces on standby in the allied countries. Britain and the United States are opposed to new permanent bases in the Baltic republics – according to sources gathered by Reuters: “Anything that is decided must be sustainable,” the leaders say.
In Madrid, the heads of state and government must therefore agree on increasing the number of permanent military bases in the Baltic countries a general scheme, a model of large multinational battlegroups in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, with a commitment to rapidly reinforce if Russia begins an invasion. Planning for new air and sea defenses will come later.
NATO in Europe can count on 42,000 men
On the territory of the republics and in Poland there are 4 NATO bases with about a thousand soldiers everyone. Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, NATO has activated its own reaction force and the United States sent 20,000 troops to Europe. The Supreme Allied Commander in Europe has therefore 42,000 soldiers under his command in Europewith 120 jets on alert and beyond 20 ships ready to answer. But according to Estonia, this deterrent power is still low. Secretary of Defense Tuuli Duneton said Russia had been preparing for a full-scale military confrontation with NATO for 20 years while the alliance turned its attention to other fronts, such as Afghanistan.
Sweden and Finland’s membership has stalled
The accession of Sweden and Finland is also met with considerable resistance. After initial enthusiasm in May, when the two nations declared their willingness to abandon neutrality at a historic turning point, the alliance is now holding back. Secretary General Stoltenberg is slowing down, also because of the delicate negotiations with Turkey, a NATO member that has spoken out against the expansion of the alliance from the very beginning. The latest rejection is today, June 15, when President Erdogan reportedly rejected a NATO proposal for a trilateral meeting with Sweden and Finland. A standoff that is not expected to be resolved by June 30.
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