A series of explosions this week at a Russian military base on the Crimean coast has major symbolic and strategic implications for both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Why it matters: Satellite images appear to confirm that the blasts – which sent frantic Russian tourists scrambling from a nearby beach – badly damaged several Russian warplanes.
- The blasts are likely to add a new sense of vulnerability to Russia’s use of Crimea as a transport and logistics center as it prepares for a Ukrainian offensive in Kherson, north of Crimea.
- Russia has moved thousands of troops from the Donbas through Crimea to bolster its positions in southern Ukraine.
- The blasts also brought war to a small portion of the Russian civilian population. Videos of traffic jams on the bridge that connects the peninsula with Russia – presumably because Russian tourists have cut short their vacation – have been shared online.
Game Status: Ukraine has neither officially claimed nor denied responsibility for the blasts, but an unnamed Ukrainian official told the Washington Post the attack was carried out by special forces operating behind Russian lines.
- Meanwhile, Portal speculates that the strikes were long-range, potentially pointing to a new Ukrainian capability “that has the potential to change the course of the war.” This is all unconfirmed.
- But Moscow said it was all just a minor munitions blast – a claim contradicted by satellite imagery and derided by Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, which released a video consultation Russians to choose a vacation destination other than Crimea, which will be “uncomfortably hot.”
- When asked what he thought of the blasts, Ukrainian Cpl. Andrii Shadrin – who hails from Crimea and corresponded with Axios during the fighting in Donbass – has reused a recent quote from Putin: “I think ‘we haven’t even started’.”
- If Ukrainian forces are indeed behind the blasts, the attacks would be the first major attack in Crimea, which Russia occupied in 2014, since the war began.
The most important remark came from Zelenskyy, who announced on Tuesday that the war must end with the “liberation” of Crimea.
Between the lines: Zelenskyy previously conceded in an interview with Axios that an attempt to take Crimea by force could result in “hundreds of thousands” of casualties, a price he had suggested would be too high.
- Though Ukraine is unlikely to launch a full-scale operation to retake the peninsula, some officials and analysts fear such statements could raise unrealistic expectations of an eventual peace deal.
- While Crimea holds great symbolic importance for Ukrainians, it is also one of Putin’s crowning achievements and one he would not give up easily.
Something to see: Both Ukraine and Russia are building up their armed forces near Kherson in anticipation of a new major phase of fighting there. Russia’s offensive in the east appears to have slowed as the focus shifts south.
- Meanwhile, Ukraine has used US-supplied HIMARS missile systems to destroy bridges and Russian supply depots.
In the meantime: The UN and the G7 are sounding the alarm over shelling near the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, also in southern Ukraine.
- UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Thursday reiterated his call for an immediate cessation of fighting in the area, which he described as “suicidal”. Russia and Ukraine blame each other.
- Russian forces seized the plant in March and have reportedly forced its Ukrainian employees to keep it operational. The UN nuclear watchdog chief has warned the facility is “out of control” and has asked for immediate access for inspection.