BIP Russia Putins version and the data The calculations are

BIP Russia, Putin’s version and the data: The calculations are not correct

How much do international sanctions weigh and how much has Russia’s economy really lost since invading Ukraine? He’s been discussing this point for months, with a certainty that precedes any thought: The calculations don’t add up, at least compared to the figures that Moscow continues to provide.

In Vladimir Putin’s new version today, Russia’s GDP would have fallen by just 2.5 percent in 2022. The words from the Kremlin are obviously steeped in propaganda. “According to the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia’s GDP fell by only 2.1 percent between January and November, while even among our economists, let alone those abroad, there was a drop of 10, 15 or even 20 percent. A drop of 2.5 percent is expected for the whole of 2022,” he said in a video conference dedicated to the economy.

At 2.3 percent of GDP, Russia’s deficit would be the smallest among the G20 countries. “The continued momentum is better than many pundits had predicted,” he added. The military-industrial complex, the president continued, has gained momentum and continues to increase its capacity. Companies in the industry work multiple shifts, some working 24 hours a day.

The tones are those that a nation normally uses at war. The data the enemy cassandres deny, the corporations multiply their efforts, the war machine operating at full capacity. What does the data processed outside of Russia say instead? They describe a different scenario, raising doubts that the information disseminated by Moscow is recalibrated according to the needs of propaganda, which must continue to project an image of strength and stability both internally and externally.

According to the latest independent analysis by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 2022 was a bad year for the Russian economy. In 2022, gross domestic product would have fallen by at least 3.4% in the best case and by up to 4.5% in the worst case. According to the same forecasts, the Russian economy will continue to shrink in 2023. GDP is expected to shrink by 2.3% in the best-case scenario and by 5.6% in the worst-case scenario compared to the previous year. Both the World Bank and the IMF assume that Russia’s trade in goods and services will have declined significantly in 2022. In 2023, exports will continue to fall, while imports are expected to be higher than in 2022. The inflation rate is estimated to be close to 14% at the end of 2022. Forecasts for 2023 range from 5% (IMF) to 6.8% (OECD).

Almost a year after the start of the war in Ukraine, it is becoming increasingly difficult to get a real, certified picture of the state of health of the Russian economy. (by Fabio Insenga)