As I drove up I-35 North toward Kansas City on Friday night, I saw a red and yellow billboard with one word – one that perfectly described this AFC championship between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cincinnati Bengals: Revenge.
On Sunday night, the Chiefs will welcome the Bengals to Arrowhead Stadium for a 5:30 p.m. kick-off. With odds going back and forth all week, Kansas City emerged as the betting favorite by 1.5 points, according to DraftKings SportsBook. The winner will advance to Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, Arizona.
It’s the most anticipated game at Arrowhead Stadium since last year’s Divisional Round, which ended in an overtime win over the Buffalo Bills. However, the energy in advance is different. Cincinnati had no problem showing disrespect for the Chiefs for beating them three times in a row.
It should make for an intense fight, and I have five things to keep in mind when picking it up:
1. The Restrictions of Patrick Mahomes
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After spraining an ankle in last week’s win, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was a full participant in practice this week — he didn’t even get an injury designation on the final injury report.
It’s hard to imagine that he’s returned to his full mobility. You might not notice his traditional dropbacks off the shotgun, but chances are his play will be limited under mid or his improvisation will be less effective. The Chiefs’ running game from below was far more impactful than off the shotgun, and the same can be said for their play-action passes.
Having to condense the playbook to a majority of shotgun and pocket passes places increased responsibility on offensive tackles – but so does Mahomes for getting the ball out quickly and with rhythm.
The Bengals’ defense has excelled at closing primary throwing windows against the Chiefs. The simple counterattack is to get the ball to the playmakers in space as quickly as possible, and any limited mobility on Mahomes’ side may force him to be more disciplined in that regard.
2. The defensive line wins its matchup
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At last year’s AFC Championship, the Chiefs’ defense pressured Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow on 17 of his 42 dropbacks — a 40% percentage. A rough offensive line gave way to many disturbed pockets, but the Chiefs only brought down Burrow once.
This season, the Chiefs’ pass rush is stronger: defensive tackle Chris Jones is a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year, defensive end Frank Clark already has more sacks than he had in the last playoff run, veteran Carlos Dunlap is better than last year’s Melvin Ingram, and the duo of George Karlaftis and Mike Danna can both win and remove other pressure with high engines.
That’s what’s needed: energetic rushes, but ones that don’t overwhelm the quarterback — as Jones allowed twice last year. It’s a delicate balance, facilitated by Cincinnati’s battered offensive line.
Backup left tackle Jackson Carman, backup right guard Max Scharping and right tackle Hakeem Adeniji — who replaced injured starting right tackle La’el Collins in Week 17 — benefited from snow-covered terrain where Buffalo’s already mediocre pass rush failed to gain ground.
They faced nothing like Jones, who will be in his “A” game. It’s up to the characters around him to use his influence and turn it into a game-changing performance.
3. Explosive Barrels
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While the Chiefs’ passing game has struggled with Cincinnati, the running game has really never struggled. Last season, running backs Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon had 101 yards on 18 combined handoffs, but neither of them managed a carry for more than 14 yards.
Rookie running back Isiah Pacheco has a different walk that the above two just can’t match, and you saw that on the 39-yard run last week. The Chiefs got the better of the Bengals, but Pacheco’s acceleration and high speed could give them a chance to make explosive plays from the running game this time. Pacheco had a 16-yard rush against the Bengals in Week 13 for 66 total yards over 14 carries.
An explosive rushing attack keeps Kansas City ahead of the sticks, off third downs and other obvious passing downs. With Pacheco’s breakaway speed, there’s also the potential for a game-changing result.
4. Aggressive pursuit of defense
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In the Week 13 matchup, the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator corrected his mistake of keeping his cornerbacks on islands with the Bengals’ receivers last season by playing lots of soft zone coverage and forcing underpasses.
The problem was that the Kansas City defenders were lackluster in their collection and pursuit of the ball, missing tackles — or making them but being dragged past the first-down mark. I think that’s a mindset that starts with the game plan and needs to be emphasized by Spagnuolo. Linebackers Nick Bolton, Willie Gay Jr. and safety Justin Reid are at their best when they can aggressively get used to it and play with burning hair.
The same players can have this mindset in the passing game, attacking and closing routes, throwing lanes down the middle to allow the tight end for Hayden Hurst and slot receiver Tyler Boyd. Note that these three Chiefs defenders are used attacking rather than passively.
5. Use of wide receivers
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One of the biggest X-Factors in this game is wide receiver Kadarius Toney, who missed the Week 13 matchup through injury. His ability to make plays after catching is exactly what Mahomes must lean on when Cincinnati’s cover fouls the trajectories to hit Travis Kelce and other prime targets.
At the same time, the Chiefs have made big plays from their receivers this streak — from the 44-yard bomb on Mecole Hardman in last year’s AFC title game to the 42-yard catch that Marquez Valdes-Scantling had to hit against the Blitz here this year . The Bengals will rarely give Mahomes chances, but he will take them when they are there.
Even in the traditional passing game, wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster should have a mismatch on either side of the field: rookie cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt and Eli Apple play the perimeter. There’s no reason the Chiefs shouldn’t take advantage of that, and it could mean some back-shoulder throws for Smith-Schuster on the touchline.