In his latest analysis of the war in Ukraine, Colonel Markus Reisner reveals a devastating truth – and tells how things will go on.
War will soon be raging in Ukraine for eleven months. Army Colonel Markus Reisner seized the turn of the year as an opportunity to do an in-depth analysis of Vladimir Putin’s invasion. Prospects are not good – neither for Russian defenders nor for attackers. The military expert shows this based on the three levels: tactics, operation and strategy.
tactics
For example, the Russian army would have suffered a major setback at the tactical level. The idea of carrying out a rapid invasion with mechanized battalion combat groups or battalion tactical groups (BTG) backfired. “The battalion’s tactical group obviously has an inferiority, especially with regard to the proportion of infantry, which has taken its toll,” said the officer.
Without the protection of accompanying foot soldiers, Russian tanks were easy pickings for the defenders. At the same time, the Ukrainians understood how to stop the mechanized Russian advance using high-precision artillery and shoulder-launched anti-tank weapons.
operations
At the operational level, it is clear that after repelling the attack on Kyiv – for which the Russian side had prepared more than inadequately and apparently on the basis of incorrect information – the Ukrainians managed to record new successes. Reisner cites counteroffensives in the Kharkiv area or the Russian retreat across the Dnipro near Kherson as examples. However, the Russian army did not have to just take it.
“It’s also important to note that the Russian side has also had some successes over the past 11 months.” The conquest of Mariupol, the Battle of Severodonetsk and now also the advance on Soledar near Bakhmut would show this. And: Russian units would adapt their methods very quickly after a failure. In general, both sides would show a very high degree of flexibility in their way of conducting operations.
strategy
The strategic level is decisive for how long the conflicting parties can continue the conflict. For example, the Russians recognized that missiles, drones and other long-range weapons could hit the Ukrainians’ Achilles heel: critical infrastructure behind the front.
“That means: although, paradoxically, the Ukrainian side is very successful at an operational level, it has the challenge that the Russian side, at a strategic level, keeps trying to attack critical infrastructure – that is, of course, the supply of energy. And then it’s very successful.” The consequences are continuous interruptions and blackouts to prevent the affected electrical grid from collapsing. “Here, it is mainly about resistance to be able to continue this conflict”, analyzes Reisner.
Thousands of tanks already destroyed
The protection of war material itself is also extremely important. At the start of the invasion, Russia had a clear advantage here, as the country still had a huge arsenal of Soviet weapons. Experts assume that Russia has a total of about 10,000 tanks, some of which are very old. As part of the repair programs, it would probably be possible for Putin to bring around 3,000 to 3,500 of them into the field.
Colonel Markus Reisner is head of the research and development department at the Theresian Military Academy in Wiener NeustadtScreenshot YouTube/Austrian Armed Forces
The Ukrainian armed forces also had a huge arsenal of tanks from their Soviet past. At least at the beginning of the war, they were probably the most powerful military force in Europe. More than 1,000 main battle tanks and twice as many infantry fighting vehicles and armored vehicles could be available.
Losses on both sides were already huge in the first few months of the war, and they only got worse. Reisner estimates that by December the Kremlin would have lost about 1,400 tanks and about 500 artillery systems. According to its own sources, the Ukrainian side lost about half of its own war material in June.
The Russians are far from running out of ammo.
The problem also exists with ammunition. Here, Vladimir Putin has much more staying power, according to the army colonel. Before the conflict, the Russians had about 17 million artillery shells in their stockpiles, and 7 million have already been fired. Meanwhile, the Russian economy could produce around 3.4 million artillery shells a year.
Colonel Markus Reisner is head of the research and development department at the Theresian Military Academy in Wiener NeustadtScreenshot YouTube/Austrian Armed Forces
In short, this means that Russia can fight this war much longer before ammunition runs out on all fronts. On the other hand, Ukraine has already largely exhausted its stocks, which is why the switch to NATO calibers is being postponed. Western equipment, including ammunition deliveries, would have made successful summer counter-offensives possible.
Dangerous to accuse Russians of incompetence
Colonel Reisner is also tough on a wide variety of sources about the conflict in Ukraine. If you really want to understand developments ahead, you need to handle information critically. Reisner warns: “It does no good to describe the Russian side as incompetent and non-operational.” Rather, one must also recognize that the Kremlin has had important successes in order to understand the possibilities for further escalation.
This is also part of this war, which also extends into the information space: “While there is speculation in the West about the operational capability of the Russian armed forces, the Russian side is very specifically trying, through a variety of formats, to feed the narrative in such a way that it becomes clear that what the Russian army has established it can actually implement.” Social media, in particular, is full of propaganda designed to give the impression of blockbuster success – “this is exactly the propaganda that the Russian population is subjected to”.
Read more: Completely different – this is how Russians experience the war in Ukraine on TV
How’s the war going?
If Ukraine wants to go further on the offensive, it will need far more heavy warfare equipment – tanks, artillery and air defenses – than the West has promised to provide so far. “We haven’t seen any major advances like the delivery of hundreds of systems.” So there is still a huge gap between the warring parties in the sheer number of war machines available.
Ukrainians would like to form two bodies with the weapons of the West to make decisions in the East and South. One can counterattack directly east towards occupied Lysychansk. Supply routes to Donbass could be destroyed there.
promising offensive
The other, from Zaporizhia, would advance directly south to sever the land connection between Russia and Crimea. This would require an attack on Melitopol along with another attack on the Crimean Bridge. “This approach would be more promising because it would make it possible for Russian forces in Crimea to [den Oblasts] To cut off Kherson and Zaporizhia, the Russian side would face completely different challenges than fomenting attacks on Bakhmut.
However, any further advance would also be hampered by the fact that the Russians had used the last few months to isolate themselves in the occupied areas and bring supplies to the front.
“Devastating for both sides”
“In conclusion, it must be said that what crystallized in the first months of the conflict, that is, that this war is being waged as a war of attrition, is becoming more and more true”, summarizes the colonel against the backdrop of a bomb -devastated field near Bachmutvoller Wagner mercenary corps.
“You can see a type of warfare here that we no longer thought possible in this form,” Reisner comments on the shocking photo. All of this is reminiscent of World War I battlefields and is “devastating for both sides”.
The Russians would have massive losses, and even without such a meat grinder, a lack of experienced infantrymen, which still prevents a decision in their favor. The Ukrainians, on the other hand, would have the dilemma of defending the areas as much as possible before they were taken – with equally severe losses.
Who will win?
In the end, it comes down to which of the two countries will have the staying power. The Ukrainians are currently being funded and supported for the most part by the US, Europe helped mainly with funds. At the same time, modern tanks would be built in three shifts in Russia and sent to the front. Despite high casualty rates, “which seem unbelievable from a western point of view”, the Russian side still manages to hold the parts of the ground it has taken possession of.
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The Guard commander’s sad conclusion: “The message I can give is that this war will last even longer. And we must not only look at Ukraine or Russia, but we must also consider that the forces in the background play an important role. ” From the Russian side, that would be China, Iran or India. About the Ukrainian West and NATO.
The conflict is like a boxing match, Reisner concludes: “One round after another happens. The Ukrainian side won several rounds on points, but there hasn’t been a knockout so far.”
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rcp navigation account Time 14.01.2023, 17:53 | Act: 1/14/2023, 6:06 pm