The war has been raging in Ukraine for almost a year. For local expert Markus Reisner, it’s clear that Ukraine has a big problem.
Colonel Markus Reisner is not only celebrated online for his highly professional analysis of the war in Ukraine – Reisner posts assessments of the situation on the Armed Forces YouTube channel at irregular intervals – he is also an internationally sought-after expert. His latest assessment, made for the NTV news channel, highlights a major problem for the Ukrainian armed forces.
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Reisner refers to American experts who now speak of a “war of position”. In the past year, Ukraine has managed to maintain momentum in one offensive or another. “They should have kept that momentum going,” but it didn’t work out. From Ukraine’s point of view, it is now a matter of going back on the offensive. If that doesn’t happen, it would be a big plus for Putin’s army.
Ukraine is running out of time
Because: “The longer Ukraine waits to do this, the more time Russia will have to dig in the proper lines, to consolidate and, above all, to bring in the troops missing in recent months,” according to Reisner’s analysis, who is now guard commander is.
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The fact that Ukraine has now received weapons worth tens of millions of euros is not the deciding factor in favor of the Ukrainian armed forces. Because in the war of attrition, a person is forced to constantly replenish forces. Equipment and forces cannot be imported all at once. If you wait to be able to do this, you run the great risk that the “initiative passes to the opponent”.
Even if Ukraine receives weapons from the West, one should not forget that Russia still has “huge stockpiles” from the times of the Soviet Union.
Ukraine is getting few weapons
At the same time, Ukraine did not receive all the weapons systems it needed. As an example, Reisner cites the use of HIMARS systems (multiple rocket launchers, note) supplied by the West. 20 pieces, 50 or even 100 pieces were delivered – five times more – the Ukrainian army demanded in order to achieve a resounding success. Ukraine is also at a distinct disadvantage when it comes to precision weapons and fighter jets. The delivery of war tanks is “very symbolic”. In fact, there is a whole range of other weapons systems that could guarantee a “decisive” advance.
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Reisner does the math. With all the losses, the Russian army must still have 4,000 operational tanks, or those that can be put into operation in a timely manner. In contrast, delivering ten or 20 tanks to the Ukrainian army, which is also constantly fighting with casualties, is an extremely small number.
What is the next?
Reisner hopes for the next few weeks – again quoting US Chief of Staff Mark. A. Milley – a “very difficult fight” for Ukraine. Ukraine’s chances of reconquering the annexed areas this year are “minimal”.
A game changer, however, could be “concentrated” arms deliveries from the West to Ukraine – but that’s not in sight, according to Reisner. From a military point of view, “the mass is always decisive”. The mob makes it possible to decide a conflict on your side. “And of course that’s still not the case.” Russia is biding its time, which is a “favorable” strategy for Moscow.
Account navigation mrr Hour28.01.2023, 17:12| Act: 01/28/2023, 5:12 pm