- The Western Balkans, a group of six countries that EU officials have repeatedly said are part of the European family, includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia.
- Concerns about Russia’s influence in the Western Balkans – an area still scarred by the ethnic wars of the 1990s – have increased since Moscow’s all-out invasion of Ukraine.
- “It is clear that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is affecting the stability of our vulnerable partners and putting them at greater risk of malicious influence,” a NATO official told CNBC.
NATO, which includes Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia as members, says it has observed cyberattacks, disinformation, intimidation and other destabilizing activities in the western Balkans over the past 12 months.
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As Russia’s attack in Ukraine nears its year-long milestone, fears are growing over the Kremlin’s efforts to capitalize on simmering tensions on a “second battlefield.”
The Western Balkans, a group of six countries that European Union officials have repeatedly said are part of the European family, includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia.
The region of around 18 million people in southern and eastern Europe, which is not yet a member of the 27-nation bloc, is known as a theater of geostrategic rivalry, with Moscow, Brussels and Washington all vying for influence.
The promise of EU accession is seen as the West’s most powerful tool for stabilizing and integrating the region, and Western Balkan leaders have recently welcomed what appears to be a new way of thinking to strengthen ties.
But concerns about Russia’s influence in the western Balkans — an area still scarred by the ethnic wars of the 1990s — have intensified since Ukraine’s all-out Kremlin invasion.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, North Macedonian President Stevo Pendarovski said that, apart from Kiev, he considers the Western Balkans region to be the “weak point” of the European security architecture.
NATO, whose members include Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia, said it had observed cyberattacks, disinformation, intimidation and other destabilizing activities in the western Balkans over the past 12 months. In addition, there are recurring regional tensions, including in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Certainly the Western Balkans are a second battleground for Russia in terms of foreign interference and information manipulation.
peter stan
Chief Foreign Policy Spokesman of the EU
The US-led military alliance also warned of foreign actors working to undermine progress, while North Macedonia’s Pendarovski says the western Balkans have been a target of Russia’s divisive agenda for several years.
“My verdict is that if Russia somehow tries to divert Western attention from Ukraine, which is of course the main arena of war and propaganda, the Western Balkans region is more vulnerable than the Baltics. So, we should take care of that,” Pendarovski said last month.
“It seems to me that the so-called weak point in the entire pan-European security architecture at the moment, apart from Ukraine of course, is the Western Balkans.”
Russia is said to oppose the Western Balkans’ push for integration into the EU and NATO, and the Kremlin has been accused of working to use ethnic and religious fault lines to undermine those efforts.
Moscow, which has long-held ties with Serbia and other allies, has denied claims that it is trying to sow chaos in the region.
Adnan Ćerimagić, senior Western Balkans analyst at the European Stability Initiative think-tank, said he agreed with Pendarovski’s security assessment of the region amid Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“The reason I would agree is that like Russia in the Western Balkans, there is a political vision that doesn’t match the current form [its] borders,” Ćerimagić told CNBC by phone.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, North Macedonian President Stevo Pendarovski said he believed, along with Ukraine, that the Western Balkans region was the “weak point” of Europe’s security architecture.
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Ćerimagić said Russia’s war in Ukraine offers Europe a clear opportunity to consolidate stability in the western Balkans. He said the bloc could seize this moment by making countries a concrete offer that would allow them to join by 2027 or 2030 if they implement the necessary reforms.
“I think if they want to seal the deal, they have to step up their offer to the region,” Ćerimagić said.
EU officials have sought to reiterate the importance of bringing the Western Balkans into the bloc since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and regional leaders – in a marked change of tone from just months earlier – were praising the development late last year.
At the EU-Western Balkans summit in early December, held for the first time in the Balkans region, the bloc underscored its “full and unequivocal commitment to the Western Balkans’ EU membership perspective”.
The prerequisite for this are “credible reforms” by the partners.
Peter Stano, the EU’s top foreign policy spokesman, said he completely dismissed criticism that the EU had not done enough to support the Western Balkans’ entry into the bloc.
“The fact that they are in the accession process means that they are getting closer and more integrated into the EU every day because of their efforts to implement reforms and with significant support from the EU,” Stano said.
At the EU-Western Balkans summit in early December, held for the first time in the Balkans region, the bloc underscored its “full and unequivocal commitment to the Western Balkans’ EU membership perspective”.
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When asked about the current security situation in the region, Stano replied: “It’s more about stability than security itself.”
“It’s not a war zone and it won’t be a war zone for two reasons. Some of the countries in the region are already NATO members, and in others we have EU missions (military and civilian) and all are in the EU accession process,” Stano said.
“This provides enough preventive safeguards against the outbreak of any kind of hard or hot conflict,” he added, noting that there are still incidents and tensions, “but this is different and related to previous unresolved issues.”
“Certainly, the Western Balkans are a second battleground for Russia in terms of foreign interference and information manipulation. That was before, but post-Ukraine this has intensified in terms of general meddling, including cyberattacks, and attempts to undermine stability [Russian President Vladimir] Putin doesn’t want them to get closer to the EU,” Stano said.
For its part, NATO said the group’s Strategic Concept, endorsed at last June’s Madrid summit, reaffirmed the strategic importance of the Western Balkans to the military alliance.
“It is clear that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is affecting the stability of our vulnerable partners and putting them at greater risk of malicious influence,” a NATO official told CNBC. “We will continue to work together to maintain stability and support reform and resilience in the region, because security and stability in the Western Balkans are important to NATO and to peace and stability in Europe.”
North Macedonia’s Pendarovski last month described the US as a “key player” in helping Western Balkan countries through Russia’s war in Ukraine.
In response to a request for comment, a State Department spokesman told CNBC Washington remains deeply involved in the region and described the future of the Western Balkans as “right inside the EU.”
“We must not allow the Russian government to use the war of its choice to stall the progress of the Western Balkan countries,” the spokesman said.
“Russia has shown with exquisite clarity that it does not share the same values and does not look after their best interests,” they added. “Russia’s war has also highlighted the urgency of our work to help all Western Balkan countries move forward fully with the democratic reforms and consolidation needed to realize their aspirations of integration into European and Euro-Atlantic institutions .”