The two monitored suspected areas could be merged by the middle of the week. The risk of a tropical storm forming by Thursday is now high. The weather is expected to deteriorate from Wednesday, but there is no danger in the coming days.
“We see it starting to activate at the level of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, that there is some cloudy activity further north of the Mascarene Islands, with two main foci,” says Philippe Caroff this Monday, January 16th.
One of the two suspected areas is more than 1,000 km north of Réunion in the Agaléga sector, the second further east, 1,800 km northeast of the island. The head of cyclone forecasts at Météo France emphasizes that hotspots are still too embryonic, too weak.
Check out the report from Réunion la 1ère:
A tropical storm is forming northeast of Madagascar, the weather is expected to worsen in the coming days
These two areas of disrupted weather are not yet organized and will not organize anytime soon as they will initially approach each other and step on each other’s toes a little.
Philippe Caroff, head of cyclone forecasts at Météo France
Strong winds at altitude are currently hampering their development. These two suspicious areas will compete over the next 48 hours to manage to develop into a tropical storm, Météo France indicates. According to Philippe Caroff, no rapid development is in sight in the coming days.
A merger, then maybe a depression
And since “there cannot be two roosters in the same yard”, the two phenomena should merge. The rates are high now, over 60%. “Ultimately, we envisage a merger of these two areas,” confirms Philippe Caroff. It is also currently the furthest suspect area from Réunion, which should eventually take over to the detriment of the second.
If that happens then a low pressure area could form, but in the second half of the week and quite far northeast of Madagascar, he warns. It will then be necessary to follow the evolution of this low-pressure phenomenon, but the system should be of normal size, adds the head of cyclone forecasts at Météo France.
It would then be the fourth tropical storm of the season in this sector of the Indian Ocean. It could be baptized “Cheneso”.
“There is no immediate threat, no threat for the next 5 days” but we will see at the end of the week if there is a possible threat to Reunion or Madagascar or both, indicates Philippe Caroff. It is far too early to specify the strength, trajectory and long-term impact of this system.
The likely development of a tropical storm by Thursday in north-eastern Madagascar should be accompanied by worsening weather over the northern half of Madagascar from Wednesday near the system and disrupted by wetter weather even in the Reunion-Mauritius sector on the edge of the system.