A giant in crisis Why Germany can decide the fate

A giant in crisis? Why Germany can decide the fate of the EU InsideOver

It spelled “European Union” but read “Germany“. Granite, financially sound, politically stable par excellence and with a leadership rooted in Angela Merkel, Germany seemed the natural leader of a Europe constantly in need of a helmsman capable of navigating the various crises that beset the Old World shook or touched to keep the bar straight. Then something started to creak. This system, considered perfect, has seen the first signs of failure, both socially and economically. And with the advent of Olaf Scholz and the War in Ukraine, the Skeletons in the closet of the German EU leadership are becoming increasingly visible.

The axis with Moscow, long regarded as a symbol of Germanic “Ostpolitik” and as a pillar of Berlin’s autonomy vis-à-vis Washington, is now considered the worst legacy of the Merkel era. The Chancellor is accused of having extradited Germany (and thus Europe) to the Energy dependency on Russia, with former Chancellor Schröder being the most striking example of this merging of interests between Moscow and Berlin. A not dissimilar question also regarding the China, since Germany has expanded its partnership with Beijing. And finally, as a final juncture, after years in which Merkel seemed confident in the goodness of some “Mediterranean” proposals in relation to the needs of the so-called “hawks” of the North, the new government structure seems far from it Supporting further departures from accounting rules, with the risk that the end of the pandemic and war crises will coincide with the return of austerity.

In “Il Domani”, Francesco Saraceno spoke of Germany as “Europe-sick” and warned of what was happening on German soil. The economist highlights a country that is slowing down, a return to the strict budgetary rules as if Europe had not suffered a crisis, a model in crisis and from elite who experience a “Strauss syndrome” and “who seem to wish to return to the past in order not to have to face the structural problems of Germany and the construction of Europe”.

These dangers are not eminently German issues, but issues that affect the whole Europe. Because Berlin, still the most important economic power on the continent, significantly influences the fate of all countries that are connected to its economy. And it is clear that influencing economic destiny leads directly to influencing political destiny.

Warnings reminding how far too long this strange fragility of Germany has almost been taken for granted. The end ofIt was Merkel (but the crisis had already begun before the end of his term) has indeed marked a profound reassessment of German leadership in the EU, but also of the country’s perception in the international forum. Berlin has developed from the capital of the European system into one of the many decision-making centers on the continent at a speed that is sometimes disconcerting. No dossier seems to be really controlled by the German government today, neither energy nor diplomacy nor finance. Between internal rivalries and parties squabbling on key issues, Scholz has been unable to direct European politics, attesting to a widespread silence on what is happening on the continent. Emmanuel Macron’s axis with France, a cornerstone of the EU in recent years, has not proved decisive in reiterating the need for European strategic autonomy or negotiations with Russia to avoid war or its most devastating consequences. And the reaction of Ukraine’s post-war militarist turn seems almost a warning of the sense of dread that feeds a power thought to be eminently industrial and almost “benevolent.”

The impression is that this phase of political weakness is parallel to it systemic crisis (Economy and Development) on which could be given the return to the rules that the Germanic ruling classes like: budgetary constraints and the lack of European solidarity. If the European power vacuum coincides with the return of the German hawk line, it will have a significant impact on member states, who, as orphans of German leadership, have been unable to construct an alternative recipe. And these are issues that could become urgent not only in years, but only in a few months, as the most illustrious members of the Scholz executive report.

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