A volcano off the coast of Indonesia could collapse the global economy and experts are warning of an eruption.
Mount Merapi is 1,129 miles from the Strait of Malacca, which has been described as the world’s bottleneck.
On the waterway, 90,000 ships pass through the narrow canal every year, transporting grain, crude oil and all kinds of commodities.
The more than 9,000-foot volcano would shoot an ash plume 21 miles across the route, covering 40 percent of global trade, and engulfing the Earth in a volcanic winter for three years.
The dramatic temperature drop would lead to global food shortages, inflation and climate anomalies, according to a clear warning from researchers at the University of Cambridge.
And these disasters would cost the world an estimated $2.51 trillion.
The University of Cambridge team released a report detailing potential doomsday scenarios if Mount Merapi erupts in anger. Pictured is the eruption of Mount Merapi in 2006
While Mount Merapi is currently dormant, it experienced a devastating eruption in 1006 that wiped out the entire existing Hindu kingdom that once resided in central Java.
The volcano’s last major eruption was in 2010, which sent a plume of volcanic ash more than 2,000 feet over the crater, killing 353 people.
The University of Cambridge team released a report detailing potential doomsday scenarios if Mount Merapi erupts in anger.
The ash plume would be carried miles from the volcano to various airports in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, and all flight activity would be halted.
The region is one of the busiest airspaces in the world, with the air route between the two cities alone accounting for over 5.5 million seats per year, according to a 2021 study published in Nature.
This would pause tourism in all countries, causing billions of dollars to be lost — it’s a $3.35 billion industry for Indonesia alone.
Lara Mani, a volcanologist at the University of Cambridge’s Center for the Study of Existential Risk, told the BBC that the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ranges from four to six to disrupt the trade channel – the index’s highest reading is up to eight .
But the rest of the world would also suffer from the eruption of Mount Merapi.
“Global average temperatures fall by 1°C for up to three years, leading to severe climate anomalies leading to major global food shortages,” the University of Cambridge said in the report.
“Unpredictable precipitation patterns and unusually low summer temperatures are causing massive crop failures around the world, leading to rising food prices and high global inflation in the summer months of the second year.
The volcano is near the Strait of Malacca, through which 90,000 ships pass through the narrow channel every year, transporting grain, crude oil and all kinds of goods to the market.
Mount Merapi would shoot an ash plume 21 miles across the route, covering 40 percent of global trade, and engulfing the Earth in a volcanic winter for three years
“Only at the beginning of the third year after the outbreak are technological advances catching up and helping to rebalance global food supply and demand.”
This region is also very volcanically active, with numerous volcanic centers along the Indonesian archipelago, such as Mount Sinabung (VEI 4) and Mount Toba in Sumatra and Mount Merapi (VEI 4) in Central Java.
Mount Semeru, also known as Mahaneru, has erupted several times over the past few centuries.
However, its most recent eruption occurred in December 2022, sending plumes of smoke shooting up over a mile.
The eruption of Mount Semeru, Indonesia’s highest mountain, prompted authorities to alert neighboring communities.
The volcano’s last major eruption was in 2010 (pictured), which sent a plume of volcanic ash more than 2,000 feet over the crater, killing 353 people
Mount Tambora had one of its largest eruptions in 1815, killing crops as far away as Europe. This led to food shortages worldwide.
“The death toll from the 1815 event was 11,000 from pyroclastic flows and more than 100,000 from the resulting food shortages over the following decade,” the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service said on its website.
The Tambora eruption had a magnitude of VEI7, but a volcanic explosion of this intensity only occurs every few hundred years.
Although nothing can be done to prevent natural disasters from reaching the Malacca Straits, there are ways to send out early warning systems and signs to warn people of an impending disaster.